Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis
Clear, defensible risk numbers for complex infrastructure projects
About
Fractile Advisory is the trading name of Fractile Pty Ltd, an Australian advisory and consulting firm established in March 2026.
The name Fractile comes from statistics — a fractile is the point on a probability curve where a distribution reaches a specific probability (P50,P80,P90). It's a concept that captures exactly what we do.
Our work centres primarily on Monte Carlo simulation, a technique that models thousands of possible project outcomes to identify where risk truly sits.
We founded Fractile with a clear purpose: to deliver strategic, practical advice that helps businesses navigate complexity. We specialise in rigorous, methodology-driven cost and schedule risk analysis for infrastructure projects — applying AACE Recommended Practices to produce contingency estimates that are traceable, defensible, and built to satisfy your clients and instill confidence in your delivery team.
Services we provide
Infrastructure projects carry real financial and schedule risk. Without the right analysis, contingency figures are little more than guesswork, leaving owners exposed and contractors vulnerable when things don't go to plan.
Fractile provides specialist quantitative risk services that give you a clear, evidence-based picture of your project's cost and schedule exposure. Every engagement is grounded in AACE Recommended Practices, independently delivered, and documented to a standard that holds up under government, board of directors, and client scrutiny.
Tender Program Preparation
Fractile prepares CPM schedules for tender submissions that are logically sound, resource-informed, and defensible under client scrutiny. Whether you are bidding on a major infrastructure project or a complex civil contract, we build programs that demonstrate you understand how the work will be delivered.
Schedule Integrity Reviews & Guidance
We review CPM schedules against industry standards, identifying logic errors, missing relationships, artificial constraints, and duration padding that distort your critical path and undermine any downstream risk analysis. Where issues are found, we don't just flag them. We work with your planning team to understand the fix and produce a schedule that accurately represents how the project will be built.
Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA)
Delivered via Monte Carlo simulation in Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) or Deltek Acumen 360. P50, P80, and P90 outputs are produced with a full audit trail of input distributions, correlation matrix, and sensitivity analysis
Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis
The most rigorous approach to contingency determination available. Fractile integrates cost and schedule risk drivers into a single model, capturing how schedule overruns flow through to cost. The result is a contingency estimate that reflects how projects actually behave, grounded in AACE Recommended Practices and supported by a full audit trail of inputs, assumptions, and sensitivity outputs.